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Analysts at TD Securities are looking for the UK unemployment rate to slip to 4.1% in June (mkt 4.2%), which would be a new multi-decade low.

Key Quotes

“For wage growth, we look for the headline measure to edge another tenth lower to 2.4% y/y (mkt 2.5%), but that will likely be the low for the cycle.”

“We look for private sector regular pay to also slip a touch lower to 2.7% y/y, but the 3m/3m trend for that measure has picked up from earlier this year, so we think that going forward it’s likely to stick pretty close to the 3.0% y/y mark.”