UK: Weakness in GDP data – TD Securities

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Analysts at TD Securities note that UK’s August GDP came in at -0.1% m/m, a touch weaker than consensus of flat.

Key Quotes

“Details show most of the downside coming from industrial production, while construction bounced a bit (+0.2%) and services were flat m/m.”

“Given the solid 0.4% growth rate in July, it would take a September reading of below -1.0% m/m in order to actually see Q3 GDP growth overall come in negative, so the odds of a technical recession in the UK for the Q2-Q3 period are quite low.”

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