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In view of analysts at Rabobank, the UK parliamentary vote that took place on 27 on the course of Brexit took the threat of a hard (no-deal) Brexit on 29 March off the table.

Key Quotes

“The inflection point was the adoption of an amendment that institutionalized PM May’s promises to give parliament a say on the course of Brexit at the middle of March, including a vote on an extension of article 50.”

“Political dynamics seem to be changing on the back of defections from both large parties as the popularity of this Independent Group seems to come at the cost of support for Labour.”

“Consequently, the opposition party Labour has shifted their Brexit position to supporting a second referendum, thereby increasing the odds of a Bremain.”

“These events might create a perfect storm for the EU-UK deal to get parliamentary approval on 12 March.”

“We still see an orderly Brexit as the most likely outcome as the extension will give the British Parliament more time to find a consensus on a desired EU-UK deal.”