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United Overseas Bank’s analysis team suggest that the immediate risk is on the upside but it is too soon to expect a sustained rise in EUR.

Key Quotes

“We highlighted strong resistance levels at 1.1410 & 1.1440 & expected EUR to ‘struggle’ to break above 1.1440. After trading in a muted manner for several days, EUR finally stirred to life as it rose to a 3-week high of 1.1402 during late-NY hours.”

“Upward momentum has perked up and the risk is still clearly on the upside. That said, 1.1440 continues to loom as a solid resistance & in order for EUR to break this level, it could not afford to ‘dither’.”

“In other words, the price action within these few days is crucial in determining whether EUR can move above 1.1440. Odds for a move above 1.1440 appear to be slightly more than even.”

“Looking ahead, a ‘clean’ break of this level would suggest that EUR is ready to tackle last month’s top at 1.1515. EUR is expected to stay underpinned until there is a break of ‘key sup’ at 1.1310.”