Upbeat Business Climate Doesn’t Cheer EUR/USD

German Ifo Business Climate came out significantly better than expected – 109.3 instead of 107.6 points. But the Euro is troubled by the growing contagion of the debt crisis, and loses another support line.

German Ifo Business Climate usually meets expectations and helps the Euro. This time, expectations were significantly exceeded, yet there are lots of troubles in the continent. The yields on Irish, Portuguese and Spanish bonds have all risen once again.

Irish yields were the focus of the crisis, and the credit downgrade of Ireland didn’t surprise anybody. But the higher yields on Spanish debt are very worrying – the fourth largest economy in the Euro-zone is unlikely to be bailed out in case of need.

The higher yield on long term Spanish bonds joins a weaker than expected bond auction for short term bonds in Spain yesterday – yields were double than those of the previous auction in October.

Add the ongoing tensions between North and South Korea and you have another breakdown – EUR/USD lost the 1.3334 line which was a peak in August and is now trading under 1.33. The next line is already very close – 1.3267, which was a support line… just before the Greek crisis in May.

See more lines, and technical analysis at the EUR USD forecast.

The Irish crisis is also far from over. The government, at the brink of collapse, still wants to pass the budget on December 7th, but this may be wishful thinking. As the deadline approaches, the Irish crisis will probably return to center stage.

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