Analysts at TDS enlist three major event risks due on the cards in the week ahead, which is likely to have a major bearing on the financial markets across the globe.
Key Quotes:
“June 18th – 20th Fed Speakers: A range of post-FOMC speakers will be anchored by Chair Powell at Sintra on Wednesday. We don’t expect any material changes from his June press conference remarks, which emphasized a strong US economy that warranted continual, gradual hikes. Other speakers currently scheduled for the week include Williams (not on policy), Bostic, and Dudley in his first post-retirement speech.
June 22nd OPEC Meeting: We suspect that any agreement to increase production will have to be suitable for the whole cartel, which could potentially suggest that while the restrictive production regime could be eased, OPEC will likely decide to increase supply at a slower rate than the market currently fears. Until then, the market will continue to take its cues from OPEC’s “policy trial balloons”.
June 22ndBank of England Decision: We expect the MPC to keep policy on hold and shy away from comments about market expectations of future rate hikes. But in reaffirming its view that the 2018Q1 growth slowdown was temporary, markets might interpret that as a signal that an August hike is more likely. We expect a 7-2 vote, but risks of a 6-3 vote should not be discounted.”
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