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Researchers at UOB Group give their views on the potential move in the key US 10-year note.

Key Quotes

“Market reaction post FOMC has been in line with historical precedents, with UST yields falling and the curve flattening. The correction comes after a month of almost persistently higher yields and has lifted the daily RSI on 10Y UST from its oversold extremes”.

“Looking ahead, it is premature to call an end to a possible test of this year’s high yield of 3.12% in the 10Y UST while the trend line from August remains in effect”.

“After considering the latest FOMC, our forecast for 10Y UST remains for modestly higher yields in the next four quarters and for the yield curve to remain flat until we get closer to the peak of this current FED tightening cycle”.