Search ForexCrunch

Analysts at Nomura suggest that the 2018 US midterm elections will be the highlight of this week and at the moment, the most likely outcome is a Democrat takeover of the House, while Republicans maintain control of the Senate.

Key Quotes

“This would be consistent with polling, expert forecasts, candidate fundraising and special election results. However, uncertainty remains high. The economic environment should favor Republican incumbents.”

“In addition, the geographic distribution of the House implies that Democrats will need to win the popular vote by 5- 6pp to win a majority in the chamber.”

“Finally, elections suffer from an inherent small sample bias and every one will be slightly different than those preceding it. Altogether, while we are comfortable with our base-case outlook, keeping in mind the level of uncertainty going into Tuesday will be important.”