Analysts at ANZ Bank explained that they believe the US 2020 presidential election to be a significant thematic event for the global economy this year.
Key quotes
- The presidential election occurs on 3 November. At the same time voters will also be voting on all of the 435 House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 Senators.
- The race for the nomination to be president for both parties begins on 3 February at the Iowa caucus. This is followed by the New Hampshire primary on 11 February. History suggests a victory in one or both of these primaries has been a good guide to picking the successful candidate.
- President Trump is the overwhelming favourite to be the Republican candidate. The current front runners for the Democrats are Vice President Biden and Senator Sanders.
- Polling suggest the Democrats should retain control of the House. Republicans may find it challenging to maintain their majority (53 to 47) in the Senate given that a significant number of them are up for re-election (23 of the 35 seats).
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