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ING analysts suggest that as we head into the New Year, they can reflect on an impressive turnaround in market sentiment through 2H19.

Key Quotes

“Back in August markets were worried about recession with the US Treasury yield curve having inverted and equities selling off.”

“After three Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and the announcement of a ‘phase one trade-deal that eases US-China tensions, equities are at all-time highs and the yield curve has steepened. We have also had some better-than-predicted data, which makes it look more-and-more likely that we are in for a period of stable interest rates in the US.”

“That theme should continue with the final set of releases in 2019. Home sales figures are likely to be supported by the plunge in mortgage rates experienced over the past 12 months while consumer confidence should get a lift from the strong jobs report and rising asset prices. Nonetheless, it isn’t all positive with the manufacturing ISM likely to remain consistent with ongoing contraction in that sector despite the better trade newsflow.”