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  • The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth lower following poor  ISM Report
  • Recent forecasts for the GDPNow model are  available here.  

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2019 is  1.7 percent  on September 3, down from 2.0 percent on August 30.

After this morning’s Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management, and this morning’s construction spending report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and third-quarter real gross private fixed investment growth decreased from 3.2 percent and 0.9 percent, respectively, to 3.0 percent and -0.2 percent, respectively.

  • US ISM Manufacturing:  Outright decline – Wells Fargo

About the GDPNow model

The growth rate of real gross domestic product (GDP) is a key indicator of economic activity, but the official estimate is released with a delay. Our GDPNow forecasting model provides a “nowcast” of the official estimate prior to its release by estimating GDP growth using a methodology similar to the one used by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

GDPNow is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed. Rather, it is best viewed as a running estimate of real GDP growth based on available data for the current measured quarter. There are no subjective adjustments made to GDPNow””the estimate is based solely on the mathematical results of the model.