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The US economy will slow from the virus impact, how much is unknown. China’s return to production offers the best clues to recovery, as FXStreet’s analyst Joseph Trevisani notes.

Key quotes

“Jobless benefits and government payments will not replace the lost income and when unemployed the natural and understandable reaction is to curtail spending.”

“The longer the viral slowdown, the wider will be the layoffs and as more people lose their first-line income, the weaker aggregate consumer spending will become. It is this feedback loop that threatens business cash flow.”

“An economic slowdown in the US and around the globe seems to be a certainty but its depth and length are highly speculative.” 

“The speed and success with which China returns to economic life will provide the best clues for the rest of the world.”