US-China trade war may blunt some of the stimulus on US housing market – Reuters poll

According to a Reuters poll of property market experts, the protracted US-China trade war could negate the effects of the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cuts on the US housing market.

Key Findings:

“The current 3% average rise expected for residential property across the United States this year is the weakest since quarterly polling for calendar 2019 began in February 2017, despite a complete reversal in Fed policy and market expectations for at least two more rate cuts this year.

The consensus from the Reuters poll of about 40 property analysts and brokers, taken Aug 13-22, shows U.S. home prices will rise by 3% this year, 3.2% the next and 3.3% in 2021, broadly similar to predictions from a poll in May.

Nearly 70% of analysts who answered an additional question said the risk to their already-modest housing market outlook was skewed more to the downside.

In the latest poll, nearly two-thirds of analysts – 20 of 32 – who responded to a separate question said the trade dispute will be damaging to housing market activity. Ten analysts said it would have no impact, while only two said it would help.”