According to analysts at Deutsche Bank, if the trade war escalates to include US$200bn of Chinese exports at a tariff rate of 10%, it would have a meaningful impact on both sides, with the cumulative impact on China’s GDP growth at 0.2-0.3ppt (this includes the 25% tariff on the first $50bn of exports). Key Quotes “The products affected would likely include consumer goods, which the US government has so far been carefully trying to avoid hitting. Notably, the big question on our economists’ mind is whether China will move beyond trade and target US business interests in China.” “The team estimate that US firms sold US$448bn worth of goods and services to China in 2017, with c37% through trade and c63% ($280bn) through local operations by US subsidiaries in China. Overall, China has not threatened officially to target US firms in China, but it’s one to watch and a risk that our economists see as rising as trade tensions build.” “Our US economists’ base case remains that the trade conflict with China will be settled before it progresses significantly beyond the initial imposition of tariffs on $50bn of imports in both directions. However, recent events have clearly increased the risks that the conflict will begin to have measurable negative economic effects.” “If things deteriorate further, there is the possibility of a stock market correction in the -5% to -10% range, although if a settlement is then negotiated quickly, equities could recover and the risks to GDP mitigated. However, if a trade war gathers further momentum, it could well induce the next recession.” FX Street FX Street FXStreet is the leading independent portal dedicated to the Foreign Exchange (Forex) market. It was launched in 2000 and the portal has always been proud of their unyielding commitment to provide objective and unbiased information, to enable their users to take better and more confident decisions. View All Post By FX Street FXStreet News share Read Next ECB’s Nowotny: see Euro depreciating against the dollar FX Street 5 years According to analysts at Deutsche Bank, if the trade war escalates to include US$200bn of Chinese exports at a tariff rate of 10%, it would have a meaningful impact on both sides, with the cumulative impact on China's GDP growth at 0.2-0.3ppt (this includes the 25% tariff on the first $50bn of exports). Key Quotes "The products affected would likely include consumer goods, which the US government has so far been carefully trying to avoid hitting. Notably, the big question on our economists' mind is whether China will move beyond trade and target US business interests in China." "The team… Regulated Forex Brokers All Brokers Sponsored Brokers Broker Benefits Min Deposit Score Visit Broker 1 $100T&Cs Apply 0% Commission and No stamp DutyRegulated by US,UK & International StockCopy Successfull Traders 9.8 Visit Site FreeBets Reviews$100Your capital is at risk. 2 T&Cs Apply 9.8 Visit Site FreeBets Reviews$100Your capital is at risk. 3 Recommended Broker $100T&Cs Apply No deposit or withdrawal feesTrade major forex pairs such as EUR/USD with leverage up to 30:1 and tight spreads of 0.9 pips Low $100 minimum deposit to open a trading account 9 Visit Site FreeBets ReviewsYour capital is at risk. 4 T&Cs Apply Visit Site FreeBets ReviewsYour capital is at risk. 5 Recommended Broker $0T&Cs Apply Trade gold, silver, and platinum directly against major currenciesUp to 1:500 leverage for forex trading24/5 customer service by phone and email 9 Visit Site FreeBets ReviewsYour capital is at risk.