US: Consumer Confidence and Q3 GDP in focus this week – Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank analysts point out that in the holiday shortened week, US will still witness some interesting data releases with consumer confidence (tomorrow), preliminary Q3 real GDP, October durable goods orders, October personal income/spending, the November Chicago PMI and the Fed’s Beige Book (Wednesday).

Key Quotes

“Ahead of the December FOMC blackout period at the end of the week, Fed Chair Powell speaks this evening in Rhode Island and centrist Governor Brainard speaks tomorrow in New York to discuss the Fed’s policy framework review.”

“Powell’s recent Congressional testimonies didn’t reveal anything new so it’s unlikely we’ll learn much from Powell tonight  but we’ll tune in nonetheless. Our economists think there is a chance that tomorrow  Brainard discusses more about possible future yield curve control as an addition to the Fed’s policy toolkit. This is something he is known to have support for.”

“For  consumer confidence tomorrow, the reading has fallen for the last 3 consecutive months, but the consensus is looking for a slight uptick to 126.8 in November. For Wednesday our economists  don’t expect any material revisions to the second print on Q3 real GDP (+1.9% preliminary vs. 1.9% advance), but the October durable goods data will provide an initial read on current-quarter capex spending  if we can adjust for any impact from the GM strikes. A bounce back from these strikes should help  the November Chicago PMI rebound (47 expected vs 43.2 last month)  but there could be an additional boost from the recent stabilisation and slight bounce in the global manufacturing data over the last couple of months.”