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Analysts at Nomura note that the US Conference Board’s consumer confidence index fell to 126.4 in June, below expectations (Nomura: 130, Consensus: 128.0), from 128.8 in May.

Key Quotes

“The present situation index was little changed in June at 161.1, down only 0.1pp from 161.2 in May. Much of the decline was driven by the expectations index which fell 4pp to 103.2. Although the expectations index remained high by historical standards, the Conference Board indicated that the decline in the expectations index suggested that “consumers do not foresee the economy gaining much momentum in the months ahead.”

“The decline in consumer optimism was accompanied by some easing in respondents’ assessments of future business conditions. Consumers expecting improvement within the next six months decreased to 21.4% from 23.3%, while those expecting deterioration rose to 9.8% from 7.8%. The deterioration in the short-term business outlook likely reflects increased trade tensions, in our view.”

“Despite the less rosy evaluation for businesses, the labor differential index, the difference between those reporting jobs “plentiful” vs. “hard to get,” came in at 25.1, down slightly from 26.5 but a still solid reading.”