Today, we have an all-important release of US CPI data for the month of February and as we get close to the decision timings, here are the expectations as forecasted by the 8 major banks for the upcoming inflation data.
Most of the researchers and economists are expecting the US CPI data to print a reading of 0.2%m/m increase for the headline CPI which is due later today at 1230 GMT.
TD Securities
TD Securities analysts said that they expected the headline CPI to stabilize at 1.6% on a yearly basis, “reflecting a 0.2% m/m increase with risk for a 0.3% print.”
“We expect core CPI to print another solid 0.2% m/m increase, leaving the annual core inflation rate unchanged at 2.2% y/y. We expect to see gains in both core goods and services component prices.”
“There is a risk for a slight deceleration in shelter, but we expect strength elsewhere across goods and services, including tariff-related categories, medical care, and airfares.”
“Looking ahead, we expect annual headline CPI inflation is likely to remain below 2% until December assuming a modest drift higher in oil prices and core inflation holding slightly above 2%.”
Citibank
The analysts at Citibank suggest that the risks remains to the upside in February’s US CPI report due later today at 1230 GMT.
“The strong CPI reading from January means that another strong reading in February presents risk to the now-consensus view (which we share) that inflation will stay subdued.”
“We project a 0.19% MoM core reading with potential upside risk from strong apparel prices but downside risk from a pull-back in used car prices.”
National Bank Financial
“US headline prices could have risen 0.2% in the month, as gasoline prices rose roughly in line with historical averages. Such an increase would leave the annual rate unchanged at 1.6%. Core prices may also have remained unchanged on an annual basis from the previous month.”
Nordea Markets
“We expect core inflation to have increased 0.2% m/m and 2.2%y/y in February, in line with consensus. The slower increase compared with the January number probably reflects a drop in the core goods component that rose remarkable in January.”
Deutsche Bank
“CPI is expected to have risen +0.2% mom at the core level (DB at +0.17%) which should still leave inflation running towards the upper end of what would be consistent with the Fed’s inflation target, with both the three- and six-month annualised rates expected at 2.38%.”
Danske Bank
“We expect CPI core rose +0.2% m/m in February implying a core inflation rate unchanged at 2.2% y/y.”
ING
“US consumer price inflation should hold steady, but we continue to believe that core inflation will grind higher through the year due to supply constraints, strong demand and rising wages.”
“As such, we continue to forecast a Federal Reserve interest rate rise late in the summer versus futures markets that are pricing the next move to be a cut in 2021.”
Westpac
“For the CPI, there are two key stories. In terms of momentum, energy price volatility remains key. For core prices, inflation looks very sticky around the 2.0%yr medium-term target of the FOMC. This is good for policy makers, with a reactionary stance able to be maintained with little risk.”
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