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Analysts at Nomura point out that in the US, polling, expert ratings and forecasting models continue to suggest Democrats are likely to win control of the House of Representatives in the upcoming midterm elections, and Republicans are likely to retain control of the Senate.

Key Quotes

“However, the fight to confirm Judge Brett Kavanaugh for the Supreme Court appears to have increased Republican voter engagement. A Republican upset victory, with the party maintaining control of both chambers of Congress, could generate a significant market reaction akin to President Trump’s upset electoral win in 2016.”