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  • DXY looks to consolidate in the 98.00 area.
  • US 10-year yields navigate the 1.52% region so far.
  • Focus stays on trade. Consumer Confidence next of relevance.

The greenback, in term of the US Dollar Index (DXY), is alternating gains with losses around the 98.00 handle ahead of the opening bell in Euroland on Tuesday.

US Dollar Index looks to trade, US docket

The index has regained the 98.00 barrier on Monday, recovering markedly after Friday’s sharp sell off to the 97.20 region.

US-China trade concerns alleviated somewhat at the beginning of the week after both parties agreed to re-start talks at some point in the near term. The news brought in relief to market participants and lifted US yields to the 1.65% region, although they lost momentum afterwards.

Later in the US docket, the Conference Board will publish its Consumer Confidence gauge seconded by home prices tracked by the S&P/Case-Shiller index.

What to look for around USD

Positive news on the US-China trade war allowed the Greenback to regain ground lost, although attention appears to have re-shifted to the inversion of the US 2y-10y curve, signalling that a US recession could develop at some point in 2020/21. No news from the Fed after Powell hinted at a potential rate cut in September or October at his speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium. Although he did not unveil any reaction function regarding the interest rate path for the upcoming months, he did reiterate that the Fed ‘will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion’. On the positive side for the buck, Powell stressed the strength of the labour market and the US economy overall and expects inflation to gradually approach the Fed’s target.

US Dollar Index relevant levels

At the moment, the pair is losing 0.06% at 97.99 and a break below 97.17 (low Aug.23) would aim for 97.00 (200-day SMA) and finally 96.67 (low Jul.18). On the upside, the next hurdle lines up at 98.09 (high Aug.26) seconded by 98.45 (high Aug.23) and then 98.93 (2019 high Aug.1).