- DXY moves higher to the 98.50/60 region.
- Yields of the US 10-year note navigate the 1.70% area.
- Empire State index improved to 4.00 in October.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the buck vs. a bundle of its main competitors, is extending the positive start of the week to the 98.50/60 band so far.
US Dollar Index focused on trade, data
The index is up for the second session in a row on Tuesday, prolonging – albeit at a glacial pace – the rebound from last week’s lows in the 98.20 region.
The upside in DXY appears justified by the continuation of the selling mood around EUR this week in an otherwise calm-ish US-China trade front after the partial trade deal, steady US yields and no fresh news from the Brexit negotiations.
In today’s data space, the regional manufacturing measure by the Empire State index came in above estimates at 4.00 for the current month, also extending the rebound from September’s 2.00 reading.
Earlier in the day St.Louis Fed J.Bullard (voter, mega-dovish) said the economy faces increasing risks stemming from global trade uncertainty, while he added that decisions on interest rates will be made on a ‘meeting-by-meeting’ basis.
What to look for around USD
DXY has managed to rebound from recent lows in the 98.20 region amidst some fresh jitters on the US-China trade front. Investors’ attention have now shifted to the increasing likeliness of another insurance cut by the Fed at the next meeting and its recently announced programme to expand the balance sheet via purchases of T-bills to remove pressure from the money markets. Despite evidence that the US economy could be losing some momentum, the labour market remains strong as well as consumer spending, although the latest mixed results from the CPI appear to support the view of extra cuts by the Fed in the near future. On the broader view, the constructive outlook in DXY looks a bit damaged but it still is in play amidst a divided FOMC vs. a broad-based dovish stance from the rest of the G-10 central banks. In addition, the positive view on USD remains well sustained by its safe haven appeal and the status of ‘global reserve currency’.
US Dollar Index relevant levels
At the moment, the pair is gaining 0.12% at 98.55 and a break above 98.78 (21-day SMA) would open the door to 99.25 (high Oct.9) and then 99.67 (2019 high Oct.1). On the downside, the initial support lines up at 98.20 (monthly low Oct.11) seconded by 97.86 (monthly low Sep.13) and then 97.80 (100-day SMA).
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