Search ForexCrunch
  • DXY moves to 93.50 at the beginning of the week.
  • US lawmakers keep debating extra fiscal stimulus to fight the coronavirus.
  • US ISM Manufacturing, Markit’s final PMI, Fedspeak next on tap.

The greenback, when tracked by the US Dollar Index (DXY), is looking to add to Friday’s gains around the 93.50 region.

US Dollar Index focused on data, risk trends

The index is advancing for the second session in a row so far on Monday, regaining the mid-93.00s against the backdrop of persistent cautiousness in the global markets.

In fact, investors keep gauging the gradual re-opening of the economy vs. the unremitting advance of the pandemic, the probable development of a COVID-19 vaccine and the massive monetary stimulus already in place by the Fed as well as many other central banks overseas.

On another front, speculators’ net shorts in the dollar climbed to the highest level since early December 2017 during the week ended on July 28 and according to the latest CFTC Positioning Report.

In the US data space, the always-critical ISM Manufacturing is due later in the NA session, seconded by the final print of the Markit’s Manufacturing PMI for the month of July. In addition, St. Louis Fed J.Bullard (2022 voter, dovish) and Chicago Fed C.Evans (2021 voter, centrist) are due to speak.

What to look for around USD

The dollar managed to regain some attention after bottoming out in levels last seen over two years ago well below the 93.00 yardstick. Looking at the broader picture, investors keep the bearish stance on the currency unchanged against the usual backdrop of US-China jitters, the spread of the pandemic and the dovish message from the Fed. Also weighing on the buck, market participants seem to have shifted their preference for other safe havens instead of the greenback on occasional bouts of risk aversion. On another front, the speculative community remained well into the negative territory for yet another week, adding to the idea of a more serious bearish trend in the dollar.

US Dollar Index relevant levels

At the moment, the index is gaining 0.01% at 93.46 and a break above 94.20 (38.2% Fibo of the 2017-2018 drop) would open the door to 96.03 (50% Fibo of the 2017-2018 drop) and finally 96.73 (55-day SMA). On the downside, the next support is located at 92.55 (2020 low Jul.31) seconded by 91.80 (monthly low May 18) and finally 89.23 (monthly low April 2018).