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  • DXY trades at shouting distance from YTD highs.
  • US markets stay closed due to Labor Day holiday.
  • ISM Manufacturing, ADP report, NFP, Fedspeak all due this week.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback vs. a basket of its main competitors, is hovering around the 98.80/85 band at the end of the Asian session on Monday.

US Dollar Index focused on data, trade

After recording fresh 2019 tops beyond 99.00 the figure on Friday, the index has now receded to the 98.80/90 band amidst lack of volatility and thin trade conditions following the Labor Day holiday in the US.

In the meantime, investors remain cautious on the US-China trade front, as part of Chinese retaliatory measures to the latest round of US tariffs kicked in yesterday, leaving the bulk of tariffs on US products for the month of December. According to officials of both countries, negotiations are expected to resume later this week.

In the US data space, the ISM Manufacturing is due tomorrow, seconded by Trade Balance figures (Wednesday), ADP report and ISM Non-manufacturing (Thursday) and August’s Payrolls on Friday. in addition, Fed-speakers are also expected throughout the week.

What to look for around USD

The inversion of the yield curve in combination with trade headlines keep driving the mood in the Greenback amidst concerns of an upcoming recession in the US economy at some point in the next couple of years. In the meantime, the solid labour market, strong consumer confidence and positive GDP readings appears to contradict this view for the time being, while inflation is seeing regaining upside traction in the near term. Powell recently reiterated that the Fed ‘will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion’, leaving the door open for probable rate cuts at the September/October meetings at his speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium, although he did not unveil any reaction function regarding the interest rate path for the upcoming months.

US Dollar Index relevant levels

At the moment, the pair is gaining 0.01% at 98.82 and faces the next hurdle at 99.02 (2019 high Aug.30) seconded by 99.89 (monthly high May 11 2017) and the 100.00 (psychological level). On the other hand, a breach of 97.96 (21-day SMA) would open the door to 97.17 (low Aug.23) and finally 97.04 (200-day SMA).