- DXY met a tough hurdle in the 99.00 area.
- US 10-year yields pushed higher to 1.58%.
- US NFIB index, PPI, Powell next on the docket.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback vs. a bundle of its main rival currencies, is hovering around Monday’s close near the 99.00 handle.
US Dollar Index now looks to data, trade, Fed
The index has regained the upper end of the weekly range around the 99.00 neighbourhood, although a sustainable break above this barrier is still absent and could be waiting for a stronger catalyst in the near term.
In the meantime, all the attention will be on the US-China high-level talks on Thursday and Friday despite Chinese officials appear to have talked down the possibility of any relevant agreement in past hours.
In the US data universe, September’s Producer Prices are due seconded by the NFIB Index. In addition Fed’s J.Powell will speak at NABE Conference in Denver, Chicago Fed C.Evans (voter, centrist) will speak in Chicago and Minneapolis Fed N.Kashkari (2020 voter, dovish) speaks in Minnesota.
What to look for around USD
The Greenback has started the week on a better mood and is looking to leave behind last week’s negative price action. Renewed US recession jitters and Fed easing chatter weighed on the buck during last week, particularly after the awful prints from the ISM gauges and the mixed employment report for the month of September. In the very near term, investors’ focus will be on the FOMC minutes (Wednesday) and US-China trade talks (Thursday and Friday). Despite evidence that the US economy could be losing some momentum, the labour market remains strong as well as consumer spending, while the recent pick up in inflation adds to the auspicious domestic scenario vs. the generalized slowdown in most of overseas economies. On the broader view, the constructive outlook in DXY looks a bit damaged but it still is in play amidst a divided FOMC vs. a broad-based dovish stance from the rest of the G-10 central banks. In addition, the positive view on USD remains well sustained by its safe haven appeal and the status of ‘global reserve currency’.
US Dollar Index relevant levels
At the moment, the pair is losing 0.03% at 98.96 and faces the next support at 98.71 (21-day SMA) seconded by 98.31 (55-day SMA) and finally 97.86 (monthly low Sep.13). On the upside, a breakout of 99.67 (yearly high Oct.1) would aim for 99.89 (monthly high May 11 2017) and then 100.00 (psychological handle).