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  • DXY collapsed to the 94.90/85 band early on Monday.
  • US yields dropped to fresh lows on safe haven demand.
  • US CPI, Producer Prices, advanced U-Mich due later in the week.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the greenback vs. a bundle of its main competitors, has managed to regain the 95.00 mark and above after tumbling to multi-month lows in the 94.90 region earlier in the Asian trading hours.

US Dollar Index focused on yields, coronavirus

After bottoming out in levels last seen in October 2018 near 94.90, the index has managed to regain some traction and retake the 95.00 neighbourhood against the backdrop of declining US yields and increasing concerns around the coronavirus.

Indeed, market participants have been running for shelter since the very beginning of the Asian session on Monday in response to the collapse in crude oil prices and rising fears surrounding the coronavirus (COVID-19).

In fact, yields of the US 10-year note dropped to fresh all-time lows around 0.47% and USD/JPY plummeted to the mid-101.00s, area last visited in November 2016, in response to the “flight-to-safety” mood prevailing at the beginning of the week.

Despite prices are rebounding from earlier lows, the sentiment remains sour and the negative view on the buck is set to persist amidst rising speculations of another 50 bps interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve at the March 17-18 meeting.

There are no scheduled releases in the US calendar on Monday, while inflation figures tracked by the CPI are due on Wednesday, Producer Prices and usual Claims on Thursday and the flash U-Mich index on Friday.

What to look for around USD

The index remains well on the defensive at the beginning of the week, although it has managed to come back after falling to the 94.90/85 band on Monday. The dollar remains under strong selling pressure in response to rising bets on another Fed move on rates at the March meeting, declining yields and heightened concerns on the impact of the coronavirus on the economy.

US Dollar Index relevant levels

At the moment, the index is losing 0.88% at 95.24 and faces the next support at 94.88 (2020 low Mar.9) seconded by 94.79 (monthly low Oct.16 2018) and then 93.81 (monthly low Sep.23 2018). On the upside, a break above 96.06 (50% Fibo of the 2017-2018 drop) would open the door to 96.15 (200-week SMA) and finally 96.36 (monthly low Dec.31 2019).