US Dollar Index stays week, bounces off 96.30
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US Dollar Index stays week, bounces off 96.30

  • The index remains on the defensive near 96.30.
  • January’s Factory Orders next of relevance in the docket.
  • FOMC 2-day meeting kicks in today.

The greenback remains under pressure in the first half of the week and is now meandering the lower end of the weekly range near 96.30 when tracked by the US Dollar Index (DXY).

US Dollar Index looks to data, risk trend

The offered bias around the greenback remains well and sound so far this week, extending the leg lower for yet another day to fresh 3-week lows in the 96.30 region.

The continuation of the upbeat mood around the risk-associated complex keeps weighing on the buck, while the lack of fresh headlines surrounding the US-China trade dispute and Brexit talks are also collaborating with the selling sentiment.

In the US data universe, January’s Factory Orders are due later, while investors are expected to remain cautious ahead of the FOMC meeting, where consensus sees the Committee delivering a dovish message.

What to look for around USD

The optimism around a positive outcome in the US-China trade front faded somewhat in past days, although investors seem hopeful of a final agreement at the end of the day. On another front, US inflation seems to be losing some traction while activity remains strong, adding to the ongoing debate on whether the Fed should re-assess its next steps of its monetary policy, particularly regarding rate hikes. The occasional resumption of the upside in the buck, however, carries the potential to spark fresh bouts of criticism from President Trump to both the Fed’s policy and the level of the currency.

US Dollar Index relevant levels

At the moment, the pair is retreating 0.21% at 96.32 and a breach of 95.89 (200-week SMA) would open the door to 95.82 (low Feb.28) and finally 95.16 (low Jan.31). On the flip side, the next hurdle lines up at 96.63 (21-day SMA) seconded by 96.84 (10-day SMA) and finally 97.71 (2019 high Mar.7).

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