- DXY regains 98.00 after Wednesday’s 5-week lows at 97.90.
- Yields of the US 10-year note around 1.74%.
- Philly Fed index. Industrial Production figures next of relevance.
The Greenback, in terms of the US Dollar Index (DXY), remains under pressure in the 98.00 region in the second half of the week.
US Dollar Index focused on data
The index alternates gains with losses on Thursday although still navigates the area of multi-week lows in the 98.00 neighbourhood, always under pressure and tracking the better performance of rival currencies such as EUR and GBP.
Disappointing Retail Sales for the month of September also added some downside pressure to the buck after sales dropped for the first time in seven months. US yields also retreated in the wake of these results and some renewed US-China trade concerns.
Today, it will be an interesting docket in the US, as the Philly Fed index will be the salient event seconded by results from the housing sector, usual weekly Claims, Industrial/Manufacturing Production and Capacity Utilization.
Additionally, FOMC’s M.Bowman (permanent voter, centrist) and Chicago Fed C.Evans (voter, centrist) will participate in a ‘Fed Listens’ event in Chicago while NY Fed J.Williams (permanent voter, centrist) will speak in New York.
What to look for around USD
DXY remains entrenched in the lower bound of the range near 98.00 amidst rising scepticism on the US-China trade front and increased volatility in the riskier assets. In the meantime, investors’ attention has now shifted to the increasing likeliness of another insurance cut by the Fed at the October meeting amidst some loss of momentum in the US economy, particularly after recent figures from the manufacturing sector, mixed inflation results and some slowdown in consumer spending. On the broader view, the constructive outlook in DXY looks a bit damaged but it still is in play amidst a divided FOMC vs. a broad-based dovish stance from the rest of the G-10 central banks. In addition, the positive view on USD remains well sustained by its safe haven appeal and the status of ‘global reserve currency’.
US Dollar Index relevant levels
At the moment, the pair is flat at 98.01 and a breakout of 98.73 (21-day SMA) would open the door to 99.25 (high Oct.9) and then 99.67 (2019 high Oct.1). On the other hand, the next support emerges at 97.90 (monthly low Oct.16) seconded by 97.86 (monthly low Sep.13) and then 97.80 (100-day SMA).
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