US Durable Goods likely fell 14.2% in May  – Wells Fargo

On Thursday, US economic data to be released include Jobless Claims and Durable Goods Orders (preliminary). Analysts at Wells Fargo expect a 14.2% decline in orders during May, below the 19% slide of market consensus. 

Key Quotes: 

“While durable goods orders suffered their second largest decline on record in March, the drop was due almost entirely to cancellations at Boeing. Nondefense capital goods orders ex aircraft fell only a scant 0.1% in March, but it is unlikely that this resilience was repeated in April.”

“According to the industrial production report, activity in the manufacturing sector fell at a record pace in April. While this may not be surprising given that many factories shut down last month to prevent the spread of COVID-19 (…) We expect orders fell 14.2% last month.”

“Beyond April’s number, the outlook for spending in the manufacturing space is fairly bleak. While consumer spending has the potential to bounce back as shutdown orders are lifted, the trend in capital goods orders was weak going into the COVID-19 crisis.”