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The US economy is seen expanding at a robust pace in coming quarters but could slow down to 2 percent by the end of 2019, according to the latest Reuters poll.

Further, all 70 economists who participated in the Sept. 12-19 survey said the trade war between the world’s two biggest economies poses downside risks to the near-term upbeat US economic outlook.  

Key points

  • US-China trade war is bad for US economic growth, say all 70 economists polled
  • Downside risks to US growth forecast due to trade conflict, say all 70 economists
  • Faster federal reserve rate hikes will bring next US recession closer, say 42 of 68 economists
  • US GDP growth seen 3.1 percent in Q3, 2.8 percent in Q4 (3.0, 2.7 percent in August poll)
  • Federal Reserve to raise rates twice more this year, twice again in 2019 (same as August poll)
  • Median 15 percent chance of US recession in next 12 months, 35 percent in two years (15, 31 percent in August poll)