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A month before election day, Biden’s lead remains consistently solid, rising marginally in rolling average of polls whereas outside of average of polls, some of the most recent results show a record double-digit lead for Biden. Meanwhile, Electoral College projections are similar to early September: Biden leads but still many toss-up states. Trump’s recent COVID-19 diagnosis introduced further volatility into a tense campaign, as per Standard Chartered.

Key quotes

“Four weeks before election day on 3 November and Biden’s lead in the US presidential race remains strong: average national polls show him leading Trump by 8ppt, similar to early September. In terms of the Electoral College, the projections are very similar, with Biden projected to win 279 votes against Trump’s 125. So, even if Biden were to lose the 134 still-too-close-to-call electoral votes from battleground states, he would still have more than the 270 needed to win.”

“The most dramatic piece of news of the recent campaign has been Trump testing positive for COVID-19 on 1 October. The consequences for the campaign are still very unclear. The most immediate consequence is Trump’s inability to hold campaign rallies as well as fundraiser events – his campaign is notably trailing Biden’s in terms of funding. Should the president become unable to exercise his daily presidential duties, VP Mike Pence would take over, under the 25th amendment. Should the president still be physically unfit by election day on 3 November, things could get complicated.”

“Problematically, millions of Americans have already cast their votes. And so the likelihood would be that the presidential election – which is unlikely to be postponed – would go ahead with the same names on the ballot, and a decision on a Republican candidate would need to be made between 3 November – election day – and 14 December, the day the Electoral College convenes. The legalities of all these various scenarios would likely be disputed and the situation could get complicated. For now, the Trump campaign’s latest declarations foresee the president coming back to the race sooner, rather than later.”