According to National Bank of Canada’s analyst Krishen Rangasamy, September’s employment reports were largely positive, and consistent with a still-expanding US economy.
Key Quotes:
“Those concerned about an imminent U.S. recession should be reassured by September’s employment reports. The household survey had another massive month ─ almost a million net new jobs have been created in just the last two months ─, causing the jobless rate to fall to 3.5%, the lowest in 50 years.”
“The more closely watched establishment survey was also better than expected (after considering upward revisions to prior months) showing a 136K increase for non-farm payrolls in September, which is more than enough to absorb new entrants in the labour market.”
“While there were job cuts in manufacturing in September, that can’t be surprising amid well-documented factory woes. One blemish from the establishment survey, however, was the decline in wage inflation to the lowest since July last year.”
“Year-on-year growth in hourly earnings indeed fell to just 2.9%, something FOMC doves could emphasize to justify another interest rate cut before year end.”
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