Analysts at Nomura suggest that despite ongoing trade tensions, US import price inflation will likely remain steady in the near term, and they expect steady readings for August import prices.
“While the US dollar has appreciated against major currencies recently, it will take some time to observe any effects on import prices and such effects are unlikely to be material at the moment.”
“Although aggregate import prices were soft in July with ex-fuel import prices declining for two consecutive months, imported ex-auto consumer goods prices were up 0.3% m-o-m in July after a decline in June.”
“On a y-o-y basis, inflation of imported ex-auto consumer goods prices remained steady in July, up 0.6% y-o-y. Moreover, the first round of tariffs on Chinese goods took effect on 6 July, but import prices for machinery and equipment from China, the main targets of the US tariffs, declined in July.”
“Import price indices exclude import duties. Thus, lower import prices of goods from China could indicate that Chinese exporters tried to absorb higher costs associated with tariffs to keep the final sales prices at competitive levels.”