According to analysts at National Bank Financial, in the US this week, we’ll get Q1 GDP results on Friday and will be a key macro release.
“A moderation in growth from the prior quarter – recall the +2.2% growth print in 2018Q4 â”€ is in the cards. That’s because of a likely drag from destocking after inventory accumulation last year.”
“Trade probably contributed to Q1 growth thanks to rising exports and declining imports. Business investment spending may also have boosted growth based on rising shipments of non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a reasonably good proxy. But consumption spending growth seems to have lost steam based on retail results during the quarter.”
“Overall, we expect GDP growth of around 1.5% annualized in the first quarter. We’ll get more information about the handoff to Q2 thanks to March data.”
“Durable goods orders for instance is expected to show a rebound based on strong civilian plane orders. Housing market data for March will also be available. Both existing and new homes sales may have retreated slightly following sharp gains the prior month.”