US fourth-quarter GDP and Initial Jobless Claims will be in focus – TDS

Strategist at TD Securities (TDS) offered a brief preview of Thursday key US macro data – the Advance GDP report for the fourth quarter. This will be accompanied by the release of Initial Weekly Jobless Claims.

Key Quotes:

“Real GDP appears to have slowed, potentially to the point of contraction as the quarter ended, but it was likely up moderately at least in Q4 as a whole. Our 3% q/q AR estimate is down from 33.4% in Q3, and below consensus at 4.2%. Most components likely slowed; we estimate a 2.5% pace for real consumption, down from 41.0% in Q3. Our Q4 forecast for real GDP implies a net decline of 2.7% from the cyclical peak in Q4 of 2019, an improvement from -3.4% in Q3 and -10.1% in Q2.

In addition, we expect claims to remain elevated at 860k for the week of 23 Jan (consensus: 875k). The weekly claims data can be especially volatile near year-end, reflecting big seasonal swings. That cautions against reading much into individual weekly readings, but the trend appears to have moved up since November. At 848k, the four-week average is up from 741k at the end of November. Lastly, the surge in home sales appears to be ending, but we don’t believe sales are suddenly plunging, as suggested by the 11.0% m/m decline in new home sales in November. The data are highly volatile, and we expect a rebound in the December report (TD: 940k, consensus: 866k).”