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US June’s national budget showed a deficit of $75 billion that was in line with Wells Fargo expectations. They remain of the view that the FY 2018 deficit will be about $775 billion. Regarding the stimulus impact from the recent budget deal, they see that it is starting to become evident.  

Key Quotes:  

“The federal budget deficit in June was $74.9 billion, almost exactly in line with our forecast of $75.0 billion. For the fiscal year as a whole, the budget deficit is about $80 billion wider than last year, with one quarter still to go.”

“As we have written previously, the federal budget deal reached in March will likely boost government consumption and investment, providing a near-term stimulus to growth separate from the tax cut.”

“Defense spending is one sector where the growth is beginning to become evident.”

“We expect the deal to add a few tenths of a percentage point to real GDP growth in 2018, with the impact fading by the second half of 2019.”