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In view of analysts at BNP Paribas, US growth picked-up by early 19 but this was partly due to one-off factors (inventories) as the trend in private domestic demand is more subdued.

Key Quotes

“The housing market is softening, corporate investment should slow, as well as exports. Core inflation remains well under control and has eased a bit.”

“Regarding the more cautious message delivered by the Fed’s president. J. Powell (about trade tensions), we believe the Fed Funds target rate will be cut by 2 quarter points in Q3, coming back to 1.75-2%.”