US: Headline and core CPIs to rise of 0.2% m/m in June – Commerzbank

Analysts at Commerzbank offer a sneak peek at what to expect from today’s US CPI report due later at 1230 GMT.

Key Quotes:

“We expect a rise of 0.2% on the previous month (consensus: 0.2%) for both headline inflation and the core rate ex. energy and food.  

Shifts in the prices of individual commodity groups have probably balanced each other out: wholesale prices, for example, signal a smaller decline in used car prices, while prices for hotel accommodation have surged recently, which points to a counter-movement.  

As in May, the year-on-year CPI rate would then be 2.8% (headline rate) and 2.3% (core rate). This would suggest that inflation has not changed on the basis of the PCE deflator either – these figures are published at the end of the month.  

Higher US tariffs could also push prices up a little in the coming months, as shown by the effect of one of President Trump’s first measures, the 20% tariff imposed in January on imported washing machines. Washing machines were in fact almost 18% more expensive on average in May than in March, making the year-on-year comparison positive again for the first time since 2012. With all major household appliances accounting for only 0.08% of the consumer price index, the inflation rate has barely moved but this could soon change if the tariffs on cars announced by Trump do become reality.”