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US: Housing starts to fall 8.1% in September – Nomura

Analysts at Nomura expect US housing starts to fall 8.1% m-o-m to 1179k saar in September.

Key Quotes

“Single-family housing starts rose firmly by 1.9% m-o-m in August, but much of that growth was driven by a 14.2% m-o-m gain in the West. This sharp jump does not appear sustainable and could possibly revert.”

“Further, the recent hurricanes in the Southeast coastline may have disrupted housing starts in the month. Severe storms tend to suppress concurrent construction activity but lead to a burst of activity during recovery.”

“Looking through idiosyncratic volatility, we do not see signs of material acceleration in single-family housing starts given the significant supply-related challenges. In addition, multifamily housing starts jumped 29.3% m-o-m in August. A potential reversion will likely lower total housing starts. On housing permits, we expect a 1.9% m-o-m rebound to 1273k saar.”

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