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Danske Bank analysts point out that yesterday, we saw a more significant inversion of the US 2s10s yield curve  indicating that investors have become more concerned about an US recession 1-2 years down the road.

Key Quotes

“Based on yesterday’s release of the consumer confidence indicator from the Conference Board, it is difficult to see the recession near-term.”

“Current situation jumped to a new cycle high and while the expectations component dropped, it remains relatively high (at the same level as the averages in 2017 and 2018) and significantly higher compared to the drop early 2019.”

“Consumer confidence is not the best leading indicator but a recession needs some element of negative animal spirits effects, which is not present yet, at least. The consumer side of the US economy still looks solid, but manufacturing is struggling.”