US: ISM likely to post 55.2 reading in September – Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank analysts suggest that for the US  ISM, the consensus is sitting at a still comforting 55.2 following a 56.4 print in August however Deutsche Bank’s US economists are more bearish at 54.1.

Key Quotes

“As a reminder last month this fell to 53.1 and to the lowest since March 2017. Our colleagues note that while this series does not tell us much about the monthly changes in employment, it has historically been a leading indicator of the overall trend in service-sector job growth. So,  further deterioration would send a more concerning signal to monetary policymakers about the labour market outlook.”

“In terms of Europe, remember that the flash services reading 10 days ago saw a surprise and worrying fall to 52.0, when expectations had been for a print of 53.3.  The services series has held up much better than manufacturing, and indeed the recent gap between the two is the widest since 2009. That said, the fall in the flash print to its lowest level since January has heightened concerns that services will resolve lower to catch down to manufacturing.  For today’s print, consensus expectations are for no changes from the flash print.”