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James Knightley, Chief International Economist at ING, notes that the October US jobs report has rebounded sharply (250,000) from the “soft” September figure of 118,000 while the market was expecting something around the 200,000 mark.

Key Quotes

“What we can say when looking on a longer-run basis is that payrolls growth has accelerated from an average of 182,000 per month in 2017 to 213,000 per month in 2018. The economy is booming and the bigger struggle for companies is actually finding labour to fill their vacancies. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate remained at 3.7% – it was last lower in December 1969!”

“This incredibly tight labour market story is increasingly evident in the wage data with average hourly earnings jumping to 3.1% year-on-year from 2.8% in September. This is the fastest rate of wage growth since April 2009 and further increases are likely in the months ahead.”

“As such, the Fed looks set to remain in tightening mode with a December rate hike looking highly likely followed by three more 25 basis point interest rate rises next year.”