US: June NFP likely to print 170k – ING

James Knightley, chief international economist at ING, suggests that after June’s incredibly strong jobs growth of 224,000, they are looking for 170,000, which would be broadly in line with the six-month moving average.

Key Quotes

“The consensus range of expectations for July payrolls growth is pretty broad from a low of 74,000 up to 224,000.”

“We think there may be a little upside risk to the consensus estimate for wages given the demand-supply imbalance in the jobs market. We  expect wage growth of 0.3%MoM, 3.2%YoY versus the market forecast of 0.2%/3.1%.”

“After 3.6% readings in both April and May, the unemployment rate ticked higher to 3.7% in June. We expect to see a return to 3.6% for July, which would also be the lowest reading since December 1969.”

“The participation rate tends to be quite a choppy series, so if we do see that move higher once again it would make a 3.7% unemployment rate look more likely. A higher unemployment rate, for this reason, would certainly not be a signal we should be concerned.”