The New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations indicated that survey-based measures of consumer inflation expectations were little changed in June, notes the research tea, at Nomura.
Key Quotes
“Median inflation expectations at both the one- and three-year horizons were essentially unchanged at 3.0%. Both estimates remained very close to 3.0% for the third straight month.”
“The median one-year ahead expected home price change increased 0.26pp to 3.9%, the highest reading since May 2014. Finally, household spending growth expectations increased 0.4pp to 3.4%, the highest reading since November 2017.”
“Taken altogether, the June SCE showed a positive consumer outlook as the economy continues to grow well-above potential.”
“Consumer credit: Consumer credit rose $24.6bn m-o-m in May with a modest upward revision to the previous month’s expansion. A bulk of that increase came from $14.8bn m-o-m increase in non-revolving loans.
The acceleration in consumer credit expansion appears consistent with firming momentum in personal consumption in Q2, coupled with ongoing strength in the labor market. We expect these indicators to continue rising at a steady pace in the near term.”
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