The key economic report next week in the US will be the flash PMI readings according to analysts at Danske Bank while they see FOMC meeting as the most important event.
“In the US, the most important event is the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, where we expect the target rate will remain unchanged at 2.25-2.50% and no major changes to the statement. The big question is what the Fed will signal about being ‘patient’. We expect the Fed to lower its ‘dot’ signal to one rate hike in 2019 (down from two). We expect them to be revised lower also for 2020 and 2021 and would not be surprised if the Fed signals ‘one and done’. That said, the Fed has begun downplaying the importance of the dots, so be careful putting too much weight on them going forward. Our current base case is two rate hikes (in June and December) based on our overall positive economic outlook, but if the Fed continues focusing on inflation expectations, a June hike seems less likely, as market-based inflation expectations are well below the historical average.”
“On Friday, we get Markit PMIs (preliminary) for March. We still think Markit manufacturing PMI will stabilise, so we expect the manufacturing index to come in at 54, up from 53.”