US NFP: Downside surprises cannot be ruled out – Scotiabank

Analyst at Scotiabank forecasts US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) to increase by 4 million in June. The data is due for release on Thursday at 1230 GMT.

Key quotes

“But at these elevated levels of changes and volatility, it wouldn’t surprise me in the least to be off by a million-perhaps many-but hopefully still well into positive territory.

Initial jobless claims have amounted to around ten million more folks claiming assistance between the May and June reference periods for the report and so that doesn’t lean toward job growth.

Continuing claims have fallen by around one million which suggests either benefits ran out or they went back to work. Neither gauge was useful in terms of predicting the 2.5 million jobs created in the May nonfarm payrolls report or the 3.8 million that the companion household survey registered. 

The employment sub-indices to the ISM-manufacturing and ISM nonmanufacturing reports during the previous round also increased a touch which may suggest an improvement, but hiring is one thing; recalling already hired workers is another.”