According to analysts at TD Securities, following two consecutive reports with initial 300k+ prints, they are looking for US payrolls to mean-revert to 190k in February.
Key Quotes
“We also expect the phase-out of the impact from the government shutdown to be reflected on a tick down in the unemployment rate to 3.9%. Lastly, we forecast wages to rise by a “soft” 0.3% m/m pace (3.3% y/y) in February aided by a favorable reference week.”
“The publication of housing starts and building permits for January, where the consensus anticipates mixed signals, should give us a first look at Q1 activity for the construction sector.”
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