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The Scotiabank analysts offer a sneak peek into what to expect from Friday’s US labor market report slated for release at 1230 GMT.

Key Quotes:

“The biggest issue is whether nonfarm’s disappointment in May (+75k) was a flash in the pan or something that portends ongoing or intensifying weakness.

If it bounces higher, then it would be partial evidence to give the Fed some breathing room; by corollary, another disappointment would likely spook the Fed.  

Decided to go with +100k for nonfarm payroll.

Trade uncertainty roiled headlines particularly over the first half of the month on the path to the nonfarm reference period which is the pay period that includes the 12th of each month depending upon pay frequency.

Trump’s Mexican stand-off probably disrupted hiring plans at the start of the month and dampened payrolls on the path to the reference period, and the latest round of tariffs on Chinese imports kicked in on June 1st.  

I would be more surprised to see material upside to this number than downside.”