Westpac analysts point out that in 2019, the US employment growth has throttled back to 165k, which is still ahead of the monthly pace necessary to keep the unemployment rate steady, but is a material deceleration from the strong 200k per month gains of the past 8 years.
Key Quotes
“We look for job growth to slow further in coming months, forecasting a 140k gain for August and an average circa 130k through H2 2019. If this occurs, then the unemployment rate will stabilise around its 50-year low.”
“For wages, the tight labour market should be enough to sustain growth between 3.0% and 3.5%yr. However, a renewed uptrend above the top end of this range seems increasingly unlikely. Along with softer job growth, the stabilisation of wages growth will weigh on spending growth.”
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