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Analysts at TD Securities are expecting the US Non-Farm Payrolls to trend lower to 170k in July, following the strong 224k print in the previous month.

Key Quotes

“In particular, we expect job creation in the manufacturing sector to mean-revert after the five-month high 17k increase in June. Together with somewhat slower hiring in construction, this should bring employment in the goods sector back to its recent average. Likewise, we forecast employment in the services sector to moderate somewhat from its firm June print. All in, the household survey should show the unemployment rate remained steady at 3.7%, while we expect wages to rise 0.2% m/m, leaving the annual print unchanged at 3.1% in July.”