As we head towards the end of the week, the all-important June month’s nonfarm payrolls report of US is landing today. As we get closer to the release time, here are the expectations as forecasted by the economists and researchers of 7 major banks regarding the upcoming employment report.
Most of the economists and researchers are expecting US NFP to post a steady reading in between 190K to 210k in June, compared with the above market 223k reading in May. In addition, the market consensus is pointing towards a trend-like 0.2% to 0.3% m-o-m increase in average hourly earnings.
Goldman Sachs
“We estimate that nonfarm payrolls increased 200k in June, slightly above consensus. Our forecast reflects strong employment surveys across both manufacturing and services. Our forecast also embeds solid summer hiring of students and recent graduates, and we note that job growth tends to accelerate in June when the labor market is tight. We expect the unemployment to round down to 3.7% in tomorrow’s report. We estimate a 0.3% month-over-month increase in average hourly earnings, reflecting favourable calendar effects. This would boost the year-over-year rate by a tenth to 2.8%.”
Nomura
“We expect a steady 210k gain in June nonfarm payroll employment, consistent with the solid acceleration in activity during Q2, with a 205k gain from the private sector and 5k from the government. For average hourly earnings (AHE), we expect a trend-like 0.2% m-o-m increase as payback from an unusual increase in financial activity worker AHE offsets a positive calendar effect. Finally, with the unemployment rate at a very low 3.8% (3.75%) in May, we believe it will decline further in June to 3.7%. Continuing jobless claims have fallen sharply over the inter-survey period, consistent with a steady flow of workers from unemployment to employment.”
Deutsche Bank
“The highlight outside of trade today will be US payrolls. The consensus for June is 195k (with a high to low range of 154-242k) which compares to the above market 223k in May. The bigger focus, average hourly earnings, are expected to come in at +0.3% mom (DB agrees) which, if it holds, would push the annual rate up one-tenth to +2.8% yoy and match the post-recession high made in September last year. Our US economists are close to the consensus with a 190k projection for payrolls and their expectation is that this should be enough to keep the unemployment rate at 3.8%.”
TD Securities
“We lean toward a modest pullback in June nonfarm payroll gains of 180k vs 223k in May, modestly below consensus expectations. This is mainly on account of a moderation in private services in line with the retreat in the prior month’s ISM non-manufacturing jobs index, and consistent with June ADP report (which has not changed our forecast). On the goods side, we expect solid performance consistent with the robust trend across regional factory surveys and a higher oil rig count. We expect an unchanged unemployment rate of 3.8%, with risks skewed to the upside on a rebound in labor force participation. We look for average hourly earnings to rise 0.3% m/m, leading the y/y pace to 2.8% y/y. Risks are to the upside for the monthly print, but we cannot rule out downward revisions that would temper any upside to the annual pace.”
Danske Bank
“In the US, the jobs report for June is due out: we estimate that payrolls rose around 190,000 and annual wage growth remained unchanged at 2.7% y/y. Even if wage growth surprises on the upside, we do not expect the Fed to accelerate its hiking cycle, as it has said it tolerates inflation exceeding the 2% target temporarily.”
NBF
“In the U.S, the most important piece of news will be non-farm payrolls for June as jobless claims remained near a 50-year low in the month, hinting at a very low rate of layoffs. Still, hiring may have been limited by the shrinking number of qualified workers available. Taking both of these elements into consideration, we anticipate a 190K print. Meanwhile the unemployment rate may stay put at 3.8% if, as we believe, employment gains in the household survey are offset by an increase in the participation rate.”
Barclays
“We expect nonfarm payrolls to rise 200k, in line with the year-to-date average monthly increase. We look for government payrolls to rise 10k and private payrolls to increase 190k.
Recent protectionist moves by the administration likely pose some downside risk to our forecast, but we do not see such effects present in the main inputs as of now. We will watch for signs that heightened policy uncertainty is weighing on business investment or hiring. Elsewhere in the report, we forecast another 0.1pp drop in the U3 unemployment rate, to 3.7%, and expect average hourly earnings to increase 0.3% m/m and 2.8% y/y. We look for average weekly hours to remain unchanged at 34.5.”
Click here to read more about the NFP preview from our Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik titled “Nonfarm Payroll preview: tariffs could overshadow employment data“
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