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Today, we have an all-important US labor market report due for the month of April at 1230 GMT, and as we get closer to the release time, here are the expectations as forecasted by economists and researchers of major banks, regarding the upcoming employment data.

Most of the economists and researchers are expecting April US NFP to post reading in between 160K to 195K, following the near-200k print posted in the previous month. In addition, they are forecasting the US unemployment rate to remain stuck in the range of 3.7-3.8% range.

TD Securities

“We look for payrolls to trend modestly lower in April to 170k, following the near-200k print posted in the previous month. In particular, while we expect a minor rebound in manufacturing jobs following two disappointing payroll prints, this is likely to be more than offset by a deceleration back to trend in job creation in the services sector, following a stronger-than-expected bump in March. That said, the blowout ADP employment report creates upside risks for another stronger-than-expected pace of service sector job creation in April.”

“All in, the household survey should show the unemployment rate ticked down a tenth to 3.7%, assuming no major swings in the labor force participation rate.”

“Average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.2% m/m. This pace of wage growth should leave the annual print unchanged at 3.2%. However, if we get a “soft” 0.2% increase for last month, the annual pace in wage growth would slow to 3.1%.”

Goldman Sachs

“The headline nonfarm payroll are expected to increase by 195k.”

“The pace of job growth remains solid due to lower jobless claims and resilient employment surveys.”

“Expect unchanged unemployment rate at 3.8%.”

“See average hourly earnings at +0.2% (m/m sa) and 3.2% y/y.”

Danske Bank

“In the  US,  the jobs report is due out later in the day.  Overall, the labour market remains strong, but we think it is important to keep an eye on whether employment growth starts to decelerate.”

“We expect average hourly earnings to have risen +0.25% m/m in April, unchanged at 3.2% y/y. We expect nonfarm payrolls to have risen 190k.”


“Attention is now focussed on the US April non-farm payroll release. Both initial claims data for the survey week (record low of 193k) and the April ADP report (+275k) indicate a strong NFP report, as does current momentum in jobs growth (NFP three-month average is 180k). Bloomberg’s consensus forecast looks for a rise of 190k.”

Deutsche Bank

“Friday ends with a bang with the April employment report where our economists expect a slight slowdown for nonfarm payrolls growth to 160k, albeit enough to hold the unemployment rate at 3.8%.”

“They also expect earnings to rise +0.2% mom, which would be enough to hold the year-on-year rate at +3.2%.”

National Bank Financial

“April’s non-farm payrolls are slated to come out on Friday. Jobless claims continued to hover near a 50-year low in the month, pointing to a very low rate of layoffs. Hiring, on the other hand, may have eased slightly from the prior month’s healthy pace judging from Markit’s preliminary composite PMI reading.”

“Accordingly, we’re calling for a +160K print. The unemployment rate, for its part, may stay put at 3.8% if, as we believe, the household survey shows a modest increase in employment.”